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November 19, 2011

作为一个程序猿和用户,我对于产品经理的位子,一直有点抵触。我遇到过不少产品经理,基本上他们的调子都是一样的:

  1. 我们要做这么一堆features,你们都给我实现了。
  2. 什么?你竟然敢问为什么要实现这么多featuers?你知道么?外面的程序,都是有这些features的。(言下之意,你敢不实现这些么?别人都有,你为什么敢没有?)

在我看来,产品经理有两种:优秀的,和不必要的。优秀的产品经理应该能做到这样几点:

  1. 敢于做别人没有的东西。这里不仅仅是添一堆feature,这里是敢于删减不必要的那些。敢于说:别人有的,我们不需要。别人这么做,我们要做的与众不同。
  2. 作为一个用户来看待问题,而不是作为一个经理来看待问题。产品经理可以很容易的增加一堆features,也不用自己苦逼的去写代码,只要写写spec就好了。但是用户在产品经理轻易制造的迷宫里面,会迅速的迷失,然后放弃。

如果做不到这两点,仅仅靠copy别人来过活,那么这样的产品经理,就是不必要存在的。

March 13, 2011

网络巨头的兴起之力,往往也是他们衰落的力量。比如yahoo借助人力归类网络数据,提供了大量可以查询的信息,但是其自身也被这种人力限制;google借助网络上面的链接找到最相关的内容,然后就被 link farm 搞的花费巨大的人力去清除;digg因为用户的推荐兴起,也因为某些用户的强势而被众人放弃;博客以人的面目出现,带有个人的独特视角,但是博客也因为个人的意见而被放弃;twitter这样的SNS在伊朗事件中因为小道消息兴起,现在日本的核电站事件中,twitter和其他SNS上面谣言满天飞,比如下面这篇博客里面辟谣的核污染假地图:

http://theorstrahyun.blogspot.com/

消息,是不是也将会是twitter衰落的开始呢?

October 31, 2010

正好最近几天在和朋友们讨论移动互联网时代的新闻。我不想做一个大而全,有参考文献,有理论支持,有事实根据的“预言”,因为这种东西在我看来没有什么用处。

我看到的移动互联网时代的新闻,其实已经不再是传统意义上的新闻了。现在的新闻,无论是中国的,美国的,网上的,电视上的,都是全世界的“重大事件”,比如中东又动荡了,巴以又和谈了,美国又竞选了,中国又和谐了,德州又闹龙卷风了,非洲又干旱了。所以才会有男子汉大豆腐说,咱不管柴米油盐这种小事,咱管是不是打伊朗这种大事。

可是,这种事情,除了预示着下个月油价又要涨,跟我有什么关系呢?现在是美国选议员的时候,我们这里俩候选人整天在收音机上面吵架,竞争者说现任不关心民生,现任说竞争者才是好战份子。我能做的,就是按到另外一个频率去。老百姓最关心的,不是伊朗的局势,而是手里的酱油瓶。

所以,我看移动时代的新闻,不再会是导播坐在镜头前面忧心忡忡的谈论世界局势,老百姓也没有精力去深挖一个事件的深刻背景。将来的新闻,将会是柴米油盐,将会是今天路上是否堵车,将会是啥时候哪家店有促销。主播们记者们编辑们还会继续存在,继续去追寻他们千万颗心中,对于他们每个人来说都只有一个,和别人心中不同的真相,但是他们将会被边缘化,就像当初他们边缘化报纸一样。

放心吧,我们不会让现有的新闻消失的。当我们酒足饭饱,在沙发上百无聊赖,连游戏电影都不想玩不想看的时候,我们或许会想起他们的。

October 3, 2010

就是搜索结果随着用户输入关键字而随时变化的新功能,将是战胜twitter的最有力武器。

August 30, 2010

今儿早上上班等红灯的时候,我开始琢磨一个事儿:信息的分子有多大?

琢磨这个怪东西,是从摩尔定律开始的。就跟西方科学体系的很多东西一样,摩尔定律也是让人把东西变小。物理学是把东西敲碎,一路敲到原子那么小,还能继续敲成中子,夸克;摩尔定律是把晶体管变小,直到线宽是10个纳米了,也就到了尽头;而信息也是这么一路碎片化下去的,从当年的大部头小说,到中篇,短篇,小小说,相声,博客,短信,围脖,直到“顶,沙发,板凳, orz, lol”,就差不多是原子级别了。至于表情帖和艹,我当它们中子好了。

我在这里说了这么多胡话,其实是想知道,让我们能够持续交流的最小文字组合是多大。表情帖虽然也能传递信息,但是俩人面对面一直挤眉弄眼也挺傻的,正式一点说,就是这种讨论不能持续,就好像你不能把商业芯片的导线做成只有10个原子那么宽一样,信息原子也是不太好用的,需要有结构的信息分子才行。在我看来,一个信息分子,是一段足以传递语义,并且能让对方继续讨论的最小信息单元。

我关心的是,既然各种新计算机都让我们进行信息的碎片化,而把信息敲碎成原子又不能让我们充分交流,那么哪天我们才会说:够了,这个碎片太碎了。

August 24, 2010

TechCrunch今天的这篇Preempting Search值得一读。作者的基本思路是:既然google的收入来源是那些交易项目,比如网络购物,旅游等等,那么只要把这些赚钱的项目抓住,在用户想到去google搜索之前,就到自己这里搜索,那么就可以牢牢的抓住利润,让google去当那个免费的搜索引擎就好了。

这就是那些垂直市场的公司,还有amazon所做的事情。联系到最近WIRED杂志说的Web已经完蛋,这个事情就更好玩了。

August 18, 2010

最近听说web它老人家出事儿了,先是WIRED爆了这个大八卦,然后新浪赶紧翻译了,Keso也评论了。

可是,你们谁告诉我,web是谁啊?是

  1. 那些用HTTP协议传输的文件吗?还是
  2. 那个用HTML写的,彼此用URL连接起来的那个文本网络?还是
  3. 那组用浏览器来获取,解释,渲染,运行的文件和应用?还是
  4. 那个免费的,开放的,用户用文字输入来表达需求,搜索引擎用关键词匹配和pagerank来进行发掘,盈利主要基于电子商务和广告的生态系统?

或者,这一切其实和技术更替没什么关系,起因是用户习惯的改变。因为用户:

  1. 更多的依赖自己信任的内容来源而不是随便哪个网页
  2. 更多的依赖数据的多样化,自动化呈现而不是静态的,文字的内容
  3. 有更多的新技术来帮助用户告诉计算机自己的兴趣,而不是只能依赖101+3个按钮和一个光标
  4. 有更多的硬件选择来进行和计算机之间的交互
  5. 更多的选择收费的可信数据而不是免费的不可靠的数据

所有这些,让那个文本的,免费的,可以用关键字匹配进行搜索的,用URL进行投票的,谁都可以说话的,事实和谣言并存的,依赖流量和卖东西来盈利的Web,逐步让位于新的模式。

或许这是一个好消息,毕竟,当你每次搜索的时候,发现搜索引擎第一页的那些链接都是紫色的,也挺无聊的。当竞赛的结果已经知晓,这场比赛就可以把场地让出来了。

August 6, 2010

Keso写《三言二拍:黑莓劫》,说起那些因为不能访问数据,对黑莓服务进行封杀的国家。我这里不想谈什么善恶,因为善恶取决于立场。

不谈立场,谈技术和商业就比较容易一些。黑莓被封,和google wave被拔插头,都涉及一个软件的所有权的问题。在微软时代,软件是属于用户的,只要付钱,就拥有软件的拷贝,然后所有的逻辑和数据都在用户的计算机上面。当网络出现,软件更多的变为服务,用户使用软件,就要涉及软件开发商,数据提供商,网络服务商这几家。任何一家出了问题,如果没有替代的解决方案,用户之前的投资就要受损失。更麻烦的是,用户多半会把某些数据放在网络上,这些数据属于谁,也是很大的问题。

这个问题单纯从技术上说,是个架构问题:服务放在哪里,数据放在哪里,中间如何协调,交互。从商业上说,这是一个策略问题,对待散户和对待企业用户,根据盈利预期和客户要求,需要不同的策略。再把政治牵扯进来就更好玩了,各个国家的政策都不同,跨国企业在这种事情上面需要投入不少。

而且从以往的经验我们很难得到什么有用的启示。成熟的服务,比如电,水,电话,都没有很多的逻辑,这使得它们都很容易被复制,而复制者除了在市场上作为竞争之外,其实还起到了给用户信心(电信倒了还有联通嘛),从而稳定市场,鼓励推广的作用。但是现有的软件服务,其逻辑是很难被替代的,只有那些相对简单的服务,比如网络存储,以及标准公开稳定的,比如电子邮件和即时通信,可以比较容易的被替代;其他有更加复杂逻辑的服务,都很难被替代,因为逻辑本身,就是软件公司生存的根本。

但是这并不是说,软件业遇到了很大的困难。从另外一个角度说,或许这是一个机会,一个通过用户的选择,来阻挡单个软件企业用接近0的边际成本来占领整个市场,造成垄断的机会。

July 27, 2010

在solidot上面看到的《“心有灵犀”让交谈愉快》。或许这篇文章能够解释为什么网上那么多误解,也能说明在线协作究竟需要做些什么才能更加有效。

July 23, 2010

继前天宣布给每个员工发一个新windows phone手机之后,今天又传出微软和ARM签订协议

我看了一下协议简介,没有发现明确说明微软能否生产ARM处理器。有推测说微软企图效仿苹果,生产智能手机使用的ARM处理器(苹果的ipad上面,使用的就是自己生产的A4处理器)。在我看来,微软如果想这么做,有几个难点:

  1. 技术储备。微软没有进行这方面的收购,而生产处理器也绝对不是一年就能琢磨出来的。苹果是收购了一家公司来生产A4的,就这样也偷偷的开发了好几年。
  2. 业界关系。微软跟ARM眉来眼去,intel一定很生气,也一定会有动作。
  3. 生产线上下游关系。生产处理器不仅需要技术,更重要的是和fab之间的关系。微软这方面也没有什么积累。

我看一个比较合理的推测,是微软会利用自己在软件行业的经验,帮助ARM改进架构,特别是性能和能耗比,业界一般用bit/watt来衡量。而优化的结果,将会首先提供给windows phone使用,从而在使用时间和性能上,给微软的智能移动设备更大的优势。另外,微软也可能在云计算领域使用ARM处理器,从而减少能耗,这也是对微软和ARM双赢的一件事。

现在的看点是:相关企业会有什么动作?

intel会不会很生气(那简直是一定的),问题是,后果是否很严重?

苹果教主会怎么说?

Google的Android貌似在重复Java叫好不卖钱的老路,如果哪天ARM处理器里面有了Dot Net硬件支持,Eric情何以堪?

其他smart phone player们会怎么样?酱油还能打几天?

感慨一下,intel当年买了StrongARM授权,改了个名字XScale,然后转手卖掉了。折腾啥呢?

贴图:

我们以后是继续 intel inside呢,

Intel Inside?

Intel Inside?

还是等待ARM Almighty?

ARM Almighty

ARM Almighty

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