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September 18, 2011

很久没有写博客了。今天不说科技,想说的是社会无形的公共资产。

如果要找在中国很常见,在美国基本上没有的一个事情,对人的群体性攻击,可以算一个。比如早年的上海人都是小气鬼,后面的河南人都是骗子,东北人野蛮,广东人造假这些流传很广的段子。其实简单的算术就可以看穿这些谣言:上海有一千三百万以上的常住人口,加上外来人口,轻松超过一千六百万。每一百个中国人里面,就有一个上海人。难道百分之一的中国人都是小气鬼么?河南人是骗子这个事情就更可笑,河南人口有一亿左右,难道16个中国人里面就有一个是骗子?这种对中国人群体性的侮辱,在中国,特别是互联网上面非常有市场,造谣传谣的人也不想想,这么搞,一不小心连自己也拉下水。

但是依然有人乐此不疲,原因很简单,这种段子流传很快,可以迅速的增加流量,或者就是简单的泄愤。不过这种小便宜的代价,是社会公共资产,比如人和人之间的信任这种最宝贵的资产,被及其粗暴的浪费了。试问,如果你自己不是河南人或者上海人,你遇到一个河南人或者上海人,你第一反应是去倾听他的话呢,还是先想到了那些段子?

说到信任,最近网络上面流传的“老人跌倒,扶起老人却被诬陷”的事情也很多。这些诬陷别人的老人,也是为了自己的一点利益,去浪费公共的无形资产,让人们不敢去帮助别人。请问现在谁还会去学雷峰?老人们自己跌倒了,没有人帮助,也只能喊:我自己摔的,我不诬陷人。

在美国,如果有人企图去伤害一个群体,比如骂黑人都是懒虫,后果是相当严重的。我记得以前讲过,我们系一个年轻教授,发email的时候不小心把bigger里面的b按成了n,于是那个词儿就变成了黑鬼。他立刻发信道歉,并且说任何觉得这封email不妥的人,可以到他办公室和他谈。这个倒是中国现在应该尽早学的。

老人摔倒,然后指称扶起他的人是肇事者这个事情,在法律程序上面也是要认真看一看的。美国这边的做法是:

  1. 如果肇事,必须留下,肇事逃逸抓回来是要重罚的。
  2. 如果指控别人肇事,是需要举证的,不是说一句他蹭我了就可以拿赔偿,指控也是要冒被反诉的风险的。这样至少减少了一些诬告和碰瓷儿的人。
  3. 当然最重要的,是执法过程要公正。法官不公正,警察不卖力,流程神马的,都是浮云。

当然了,政府公信力,估计是被损坏最多的公共无形资产。出了事连官府都不能信,那还有神马好谈的。

July 10, 2011

一如既往的延续了美国好片续集肯定烂的传统,根本就不是给小孩子看的片子,里面搞笑的东西都是学以前的其他电影,情结太乱,没有好的音乐。

November 6, 2009

上来我先打了四个字:“作为一个”,想想不妥,又删了。

最近拿到一个google wave的邀请,在信箱里面扔了几天,才想起来还有这么回事,于是跑去登录,正好我一个朋友在玩,于是开始和他wave。

要说wave这个东西的想法的确挺好的,的确在网络上面协作的时候,没有必要强制划分email,chat,还有资源共享这些东西之间的界限。而且把这些文字和资源合理的组织在一起,也更容易让各个合作方理解当前的概念。这个想法大概从email有附件开始就有人在想了,后来的网络白板,实时聊天,视频等等,都是朝着这个方向去的。所以TechCrunch在提到google wave的时候,总是说:这个“诞生的时候就流淌着雄心壮志的产品”,就好像马克思当年说资本那个口气。

我用下来,感觉这个系统至少实现了我希望的:合并email和chat,共享资源,包括视频,地图等。但是问题也非常的多,其一就是所有这些实时协作系统这么多年来一直存在的问题:对系统资源要求很高。当然wave算比较好的,运行在浏览器里,内存吃掉一个G也还行;对带宽的使用就好像不要钱一样,你打错的每一个字,都在对方屏幕上面显示;另外wave还记录了所有协作的过程,可以用来重放;我和我朋友试验了共享地图,还不错。另外wave开始就是朝着平台去的,可以让开发人员在上面开发各种插件来共享和协作。

那么对这个产品如何评价呢?我持有限的乐观态度。乐观是因为这个产品还是很好的实现了我对共享各种协作资源的要求。有限乐观,是因为这个产品实在是有点超前,对信息的组织上面,有点乱。而乱,是一个软件产品的大忌。计算机对用户还是有很大的恐吓作用的,软件产品的功能越多,对用户的干扰就越大,这个是任何系统都不可回避的问题。一个好的工具,是让人能够更好更快的完成任务。瑞士军刀未必有锤子好用,一个原因就是瑞士军刀在很多方面都能有点作用,但是真正要用力的时候却太复杂。如果我敲钉子的时候还需要参考一下实用手册,那么这个工具的确有点不趁手。

当然我不是说google wave不好,这是一款很好的产品,从理念上面来说,给人很多很多的启发。

January 14, 2009

今天看到一则报道,说国家给央视,人民日报和新华社投入450亿元人民币,来扩张中国的影响力。英文报道在这里,新浪上面貌似没有,不知道是嫉妒还是领导不让说。我用“450亿元”搜索了一下,这貌似是五粮液的品牌价值,或者是新浪收购分众的价格。

说实在的,如果天朝真的要扩大国际影响力的话,非洲我不了解,但是对于西方社会,反而是对两边的世界都了解的,貌似公正的私人的blog更加有说服力。以我个人的经验,我认识的老美朋友,对于中国国家媒体的宣传,会立刻带上CNN送的眼镜,认为是宣传,是洗脑。但是对于个人,对于结合实例的叙述,抵抗力就没有多少了。对于这种有硬壳的人群,渗透比轰炸更有效。

今天犯戒,谈了政治,罪过罪过,在下面壁去了。

January 6, 2009

User Generated Content

还是

Useless Garbage Content?

其实我想问的是:网络上面的内容,为什么有那么多低质量的内容?除了一味埋怨国人素质差以外,是否也有工具本身的问题?美国人要写篇文章,至少不用先去弄个输入法,也不用在键盘上找12345,写东西得心应手,自然质量高的就多一些。我们中国人要写个东西,超过20行,连我这样的话痨,都要问候输入法它母亲,更别说你们正常人了。心里的话表达起来不顺畅,自然就要有其他地方释放。反正我写完一篇blog,经常有去论坛拍人的冲动。

另外,用户手头有多少资源?包括软件硬件时间精力金钱,都不多。有限的资源,要产生高质量的内容,也需要有好的工具支持。你看小胖当年走遍全世界,背后难道没有photoshop的功劳?

我宁可不要世间只有一个高手拈花飞叶皆能伤人,还是傻子都能用的手枪符合时代潮流。

January 4, 2009

最近在很多论坛上面看到各种各样的软文,花样品种齐全。有一门心思夸某个产品的,有半推半就羞答答说某个产品还不错的,还有故意说过头话,然后换个马甲上来拔刀相助的。不过,谁也不肯承认自己是软文。好像拿了钱,帮别人说话,就不是大侠了,变成杀手了。

其实,能上网的人,有那么傻么?你一篇文字里面,有一半是说某个产品的,那么这个文章的软文指数就是50%,剩下一半如果是其他有用的东西,那么还好,还会有人看;如果剩下一半都是废话,那么恭喜,您这篇大作的软文指数已经趋近于100%了。谁都不是傻子,大家就是懒得把输入法弄出来,登录了以后上来揭露。

不过话又说回来,软文难道就是罪过么?要我说,软文不是罪过,拿了钱还要当大侠,那才是罪过。你拿了人家的钱,就老老实实的说,我这是拿人钱财,替人消灾,也落得光明磊落。如果你不但坦白,还能相对公正的评价一个产品一个服务,那么你还保持了一个软文作者的职业道德,这也会对你的软文事业有更大的帮助:你没把你的读者当傻子,你的文章有起码的可信度,这个比忽悠读者更长久。

其实你看各种产品评测,不都是软文么?他们拿钱,都拿的理直气壮。

December 10, 2008

看来这个blog的读者里面,还是关注创业的比较多。那咱们就接着说facebook。

Kay说facebook更接近通讯录,那么为什么MSN messenger不赚钱?meebo不赚钱?我的看法:facebook的最大卖点,是以现实世界的等级为基础的,对用户进行分级的网络实名制。

通讯录大家都有,但是facebook能够知道,哪个用户是大公司的白领,哪个用户是政府雇员,哪个用户是名牌大学的学生。你想进入白领圈子吗?那么请你拿出你的身份证吧,你有大公司的email地址吗?有就请进,没有?一边凉快去。

但是仅仅有了真实的身份还不够,facebook更想知道的,应该是用户的行为。有了这种数据,就可以分析用户的喜好,并进行相应的处理,比如精确广告投放等。所以那么多的公司和组织在企图获取用户的网络身份,把用户在网络上走的每一步就记录下来,比如M$ passport,比如openID,比如google account,再比如facebook connect,这个facebook最近的豪赌。

这些应用的共同点,就是提供第三方的身份验证。当你访问某个网站的时候,某个网络巨头就知道你出现在长尾的某个地段,然后把你的喜好记录下来。但是,这种第三方的身份验证,从根本上就有问题。换句话说,我对facebook connect的成功,很怀疑。

为什么这么说呢?因为网络身份验证,是用户和网站双方的事情,一旦有第三方介入,事情就复杂了。这么说吧,你回家,拿钥匙开门,这是你和家之间双方的事情:你用钥匙来证明你是家的主人;你到了单位上班,换一把钥匙开单位的门。如果单位的钥匙丢了,换一把锁就是了。

但是如果你的单位的门和家里的门,还有你的车,你银行里的保险柜,用的都是同一把钥匙呢?那我就去拿个盒子来,对你说:你知道么?我这个盒子里,有免费的毛片。想看吗?拿你那个唯一的钥匙来开吧。哦对了,我这个盒子里,还能告诉你,谁在MSN上block了你;放心吧,我们跟MSN,跟facebook,都是合作伙伴。

December 9, 2008

最近facebook的托儿到处都是,看到最多的论据是:cnn怎么赚钱,facebook就怎么赚钱。还有人说,反正人多肯定就会有生意。

但是同样的论据也可以反过来说。比如:BBS怎么不赚钱,facebook就怎么不赚钱;或者说,酱油店人多,但是酱油店也就是赚点酱油钱。

Facebook的粉丝们肯定不乐意了:我们facebook是实名制呀,我们facebook是有魔力的SNS呀。

我这里先问一个问题:google是怎么赚钱的?

“广告!”我听见有人大喊。但是CCAV也有广告,新浪也有广告,天涯也有广告,为什么他们都没有google成功?

“因为google流量大”我又听见有人说。但是google adword是要点击才能给google带来收入,CCAV他们的广告,把我眼睛闪花了就能带来收入,为什么google的用户就愿意去点呢?点击不是比什么都不干还麻烦么?一万个CCAV的用户,都能给CCAV带来收入,一万个google用户,只有10个愿意去点广告,为什么google还那么有钱?

这里面,有个用户心理的问题。

Google的用户是来搜索的,搜索的用户,有很多是上网买东西的,搜索是为了找到更便宜的,或者更合适的东西。而adword根据用户的兴趣,提供的相关广告,其实对用户来说,也是搜索的结果。所以用户愿意去点击。另外,由于google的努力,google的用户倾向于信任google的结果,所以google的用户愿意去查看adword的内容,从而为google带来收入。

而facebook呢?上facebook的用户,有多少是去找东西买的?有多少是信任facebook的?Facebook那么烂的响应速度,那么廉价的界面,facebook提供的广告有多少人愿意信任?

那么,facebook上的朋友提供的广告或者推荐,用户会去看吗?用户在对某种产品或者服务不了解的时候,是更信任专家的话,还是更信任整天跟自己混的朋友的话?

所以说,facebook的用户从一开始,就不是带着购买的欲望来的;另外,facebook的朋友关系,也不能满足对用户对商品信息的需求。Facebook有流量,但是这种流量是低质量的流量,虽然由于实名制的因素,这种流量质量比BBS要高,但是未必有email的质量高。

Email赚钱么?

//出差带的笔记本居然不能装中文,只好连回美国去写中文。苦笑

October 28, 2008

一种是:

for (i = 0; i < 1e100; ++i) {

myFormular(i);

}

还有一种是:

yourFormular0;

yourFormular1;

yourFormular999999…

第二种很蠢,是不是?但是如果:

  1. myFormular并不是那么简洁
  2. 有很多人来免费帮你写yourFormularN

那其实第二种办法更好。

October 25, 2008

不过觉得目前的语义网的处理方式有点奇怪,可能是因为主要的研究都是在英文语境下进行的吧,我知道的语义网的形式都是建立词之间的网络关系。

不过,不同的语言,在词的关系上并不一致。这样弄出来的英语的语义网络,就跟中文的语义网络没有一个简单的对应一个结构了。

另外,语义网络的建立,似乎还是基于专家手工的基础,这很容易走到当年专家系统的老路上去。我那天突发奇想,觉得这种语义网络可能从一开始就走偏了。这个想法吓了我一身冷汗,我想我一定是错了,那些专家才是对的。

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