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January 31, 2009

我前两天说写博客没人回应,感谢Qiu和nina来鼓励我。我承认我是有点寂寞,毕竟写了东西扔在网上,就是盼着交流的,如果真的不想交流,不如跟后院挖个坑,然后把头伸进去跟蚯蚓说。

不过我还想说的是,那天我写那句话的时候,其实还在想别的一些事情,想到一半被抓去开会,只好写下这么一句话来。今天有点时间,稍微展开一下。那就是:反馈在软件里面的重要性。

如果你观察一下的话,反馈可以算是人和外界交流,最重要的特性之一了。从婴儿时期开始,如果吮吸这个动作,不能得到奶水对口腔和喉咙的刺激这个反馈,婴儿就会哭;几个月的婴儿,经常会咬妈妈,这个时候如果妈妈疼的叫出来,婴儿不仅不会停止,反而会更开心的继续咬;两岁不到的孩子,在看到遥控车的时候,就能够理解遥控器的按键动作,和远处那个车的动作之间的关系,而一旦关闭遥控器,车不再接收指令,遥控器就会很快被放弃;再大一点,男生拉女生辫子,期待女生尖叫,在键盘上按键,期待屏幕变化,还记得你的鼠标箭头不见的时候,你焦躁的移动鼠标的时候吗?在QQ上输入一行字,等待对方的回复。

所有这些,都可以变成一个模型:动作,期待对方的变化;如果有变化,得到反馈,就会继续动作;反之,如果反馈没有在一定时间到达,就会削弱进一步动作的动力。

BBS上面人多,写点东西立刻有人回复,就是建立了这种反馈;而博客的反馈则没那么集中和迅速,起到的就是削弱博主发文的动力。

有别的事情要做了,先写到这里。

过年了,蛋白质摄入比较多,所以上网的时候,也比较容易动心思去找一些荤东西。具体哪个关键词我就不说了,省的各位在座的专家笑我小儿科。

我拿着这个关键词去找Google,Google老师语重心长的教育我说:这个词我找不到,因为它太evil了啊太evil,我don’t be evil,这是洋文,你不懂的。然后很鄙视的看了我一眼,接着说:我这里有俩高清电视你要买吗?

我郁闷的去找百度,百度同学平时口袋里的手抄本从来没有断过货。可是这次,百度同学说,你不知道这两天严打啊?再说我们老大刚把CCAV摆平,都上了春晚了,我们两家现在是战略合作伙伴关系。怎么能赶这个时候抢人家生意呢?等风声过了再来!

我走投无路的时候,忽然想起来,还有一个谷歌呢。据说人家的算法跟Google一样,我抱着试试看的心态,在地址栏里输入了“鸡叨糠”,火狐一愣说:没听说过!我赶紧说:对不起对不起,我想说的是“鸡叨吸嗯”,火狐说:这还差不多。

我刚把那个关键词打进去,谷歌同学就带着一大堆手抄本小黄书跑过来了,一边擦汗一边说:你看我这里东西多吧?以后有生意记得我啊?然后很神秘的凑在我耳边说:

因为咱们这旮法律的问题,我还有好多货,没拿给你看哪!

January 28, 2009

干净的博客玩不过鱼龙混杂的论坛,是因为写博客没有人的回应。

今天看到这么一句话:

这一点是所有中国老【板】的通病,他们宁愿去听外面一个傻逼随便胡说的几句话,也不会相信公司员工的一句建设性意见

这话不是我说的,是三表哥说的,只有那对括号跟里面的“板”字是我加的。我今天也不是来讨论中国人的人性的,看我blog的人都知道,我对人性的关注,仅仅限于如何能赚钱。

我把这句话拎出来,其实是因为我相信,这个不是中国人的问题,也不是中国老板的问题。这其实是好多人的问题。其实好多人的问题就不是问题,是人性。

今天我跟一个老美同事聊天,她说她也喜欢逛论坛;更好玩的是,相对网络广告,她宁可相信论坛上面另外一个完全不认识的用户说的话;最好玩的是,她说她周围的好多人都是这样。

也就是说,老美也好,老中也好,老板也好,打工的也好,大家都会宁愿相信某个不认识的人的话,而对自己认识的人的合理建议充耳不闻。而且的确,我们经常听到有人抱怨自己的孩子,长辈或者朋友不相信自己的忠言,却对路人的话深信不疑。

为什么呢?为什么现实中的关系,反而降低了信任度呢?

January 27, 2009

嗯,最近海龟的价钱掉的很快啊,冯小刚在非广告勿扰里面,把海龟好好涮了一把;然后春晚上面,冯巩又接见了一个海龟老相好。我说你们冯家,跟我们海龟哪辈子结仇了?

不过要我说,海龟这几年掉价,也是跟海龟自己质量差有关系,原因不说了,自己不努力,靠出国镀金是没戏的,回国一出手,镀的金就掉了。另外一个问题,是镀金了也要记得做人要夹着尾巴这句话,国内现在对外国来的人不那么感冒了。

比如说我这次在深圳出差,有天晚上去逛街,找糊弄老美同事的小礼物。我买了一堆毛笔,然后我找了个店员,问他能不能给个批发价。我这边正讨价还价呢,听见旁边闹起来了。

我一看,原来是一老外,跟收银员说不清楚了。你说一老外,又不会中文,居然大晚上的跑出来买东西。我过去一问,原来老外买了俩东西,要两张发票(老外也不傻,知道自己的东西不能报销),结果收银员只给了一张发票。我跟收银员一解释,收银员一乐:我们这里就这规矩。我心里那个感慨啊,到底是时代不同了,老外也不是例外了。

等把老外打发走了,我问收银员:我给你们当了半天义务翻译,还要买这么多毛笔,给个优惠吧?人家再一乐:谢谢你,批发价还是没戏。

January 26, 2009

昨儿中国新年,今儿轮到美国这边。Google.com怎么连个表示都没有?Google你过不下去了?

别跟我说guge.cn那边有,我说的是google.com,谷歌我只用来查色情文章。

随着世界经济冬天的到来,曾经喧嚣一时的歪脖2.0,也渐渐沉寂下来。这个对过去10年互联网应用发展趋势的总结性描述,揭示了许多接近网络发展本质的东西。读歪脖2.0的描述,就好像隔着包装纸抚摸著名的雕塑:可以不时感觉到大师的刀法和刻画,却总是不那么真切。当然,歪脖2.0也象所有流行的东西一样,被庸俗化,被简单粗暴的理解为投票,会员邀请,暴露隐私数据等等。

回首世纪之初,歪脖1.0泡沫消退的时候,留在沙滩上的,是无数仿佛贝壳珊瑚般的数据。这些数据看似杂乱无章,它们每个都有一些用处,但是堆在一起,就是歪脖1.0泡沫崩溃以后的瓦砾。是“<a href=>”将这些数据连在一起,是Google将它们整理出来,是语义广告为每个数据找到自己的价值。Google解决了歪脖1.0最大的问题:如何找到信息,再安装上一个合适的商业模式,造就了它的成功。

那么,歪脖2.0的泡沫消退以后,沙滩上面留下的是什么呢?是无数用字典里面都找不到的词做域名的网站,是被无数大块鲜艳颜色和AJAX充斥的页面,是这些页面背后的某个功能。这些功能可以处理网络上面的某些数据,比如RSS feed,比如mp3,比如照片。这些功能,因为缺乏合适的商业模式,大都在艰难挣扎,它们可以看做是歪脖2.0的瓦砾。

那么,这些东西,可以被什么新的东西使用,从而成就Google在歪脖2.0时代的成就呢?

要回答这个问题,让我们暂时离开网络,回到软件的最初形态:汇编语言。每个软件,在CPU眼里,都是一条条的汇编指令,汇编指令可以看做是软件的原子。从原子的行为,或许可以推断出原子组成的系统的行为。每条汇编指令,无论是读写,计算,转移,都是对某个显性或者隐形数据的操作。那么软件,就是亿万个这样的重复:对数据D进行操作O。

歪脖1.0为我们提供了数据,歪脖2.0为我们提供了操作。我们还需要什么?

我心里有一个声音在说:没有什么了,世界是完美的。这个声音让我恐惧,我不愿意相信。

有另外一个声音对我说:其实,歪脖1.0也不完全是数据。从1.0开始,就已经是数据+操作了。那个“<a href=>”不就是操作么?Google只不过是对这个操作,换了一种全新的方式来看待。同样是数据D,操作可以是O,可以是O1,可以是O2,可以是On…

January 23, 2009

温馨提示:本文评级为PG13,不满13岁的小朋友,请叫你们的父母来。

今天的话题源自我看到的这段文字:

在性学里有个专有名词叫“柯立芝效应”,它来自下面这则趣闻:有一天,美国的第30任总统柯立芝和夫人去参观某个养鸡场,夫人看到鸡棚里的公鸡在追逐母鸡,好奇问说:“公鸡一天@@XX几次?”鸡场主人回答:“好几十次。”夫人于是提高声音说:“不要忘了告诉总统这档事。”在不远处的柯立芝总统听到了,转而问鸡场主人:“公鸡每次都和同一只母鸡@@XX吗?” 鸡场主人回答:“不同的母鸡。”总统于是也提高声音说:“请你把这档事转告总统夫人。”

它虽然以“柯立芝”为名,其实是来自对老鼠的观察:若将一只公鼠和四五只发情的母鼠放在同一个笼子里,公鼠就会不停地和所有母鼠@X,直到精疲力尽;随后母鼠再怎么挑逗,它也不会有反应。但此时若将一只新的发情母鼠放进笼子里,公鼠就又会变得生龙活虎,一再和新母鼠@X,直到另一次的精疲力尽。

我在想,其实把母老鼠改成网站,公老鼠改成网虫也是一样,若将一个网虫和四五个新奇网站放在一根网线的两端,这个网虫会不停的跟所有网站登录,直到精疲力尽,随后网站再怎么挑逗,他也不会有反应。但此时若再出现一个新奇的网站,网虫又会变得生龙活虎,直到精疲力尽。

感谢keso找到的这篇“社交网站不是盈利商务”,在这篇文章里我发现其他人也持有类似我对SNS的看法:巨大流量和低下的转化率;注意力的方向;还有就是对SNS这种墙内花园模式的反叛

每次我在一个网站无聊的时间超过10分钟的时候,我的鼠标光标就会往地址栏移动了。对于围墙的反感我一直没有想清楚是为了什么,或许柯立芝效应是一个合理的解释:在一个网站呆久了,有点腻了。

哦对了,柯立芝效应还提到,对于第N+1个新欢,性趣消逝的比第N个新欢要快。或许,这也可以解释,我们现在更喜欢在网络上面搜索,而不是去仔细的阅读;我们更喜欢youtube的短片,而不是两个小时的电影;我们更喜欢twitter,而不是去读一篇博文。因为,在我们能消化完这些冗长的内容之前,我们的兴趣已经转移了,我们必须更快的找到那个让我们满足的东西。

January 22, 2009

华尔街不买账,MSFT股票跌了11.71%,去年7月15号,我说过“何必急着送Bill”,现在微软已经有人开始思念老领导了,看我这次猜的对不对。

不过要Bill回归,鲍尔默估计还需要再跌一两个跟头。

January 21, 2009

嗯,这是一个物理问题,也是一个广告问题。

假如我们看了一则视频广告,比如冯导的贺岁片,然后我们记住了一些品牌的名字,这些名字,有多少能在我们的记忆里面存活到我们真正进行购买的时刻?比如斯巴鲁,比如北海道,比如海航,这些品牌的关键字,在我们脑子里能存在多久呢?

假如我们的脑子里面记忆关键字的部分,用的是utf-8的编码,那么北海道这三个字是9个字节;假如冯导在整个《非诚勿扰》里面往我们脑子里面灌输了256次北海道,那么我们的脑子里有256 * 9个字节来表示这些“北海道”们;假设我们脑子里管记忆的神经元,每一个小时有一半的可能性忘掉原来记忆的东西,那么出了电影院,脑子里面只有64*9个字节用来存储北海道这个印象;假如我们第二天想起来要出国旅游,按照这个半衰期模型,我们想起北海道的可能性是多少呢?

好了好了别算了,我弄出这么一堆假设,公式和数字,不是为了真的要算出个数字来。人的脑子不是计算机,这个模型不会给出什么有意义的结果的。我想说的是:

  1. 广告的目的是为了导致消费
  2. 传统广告为了导致消费,必须增强消费者对产品的记忆,以期到了消费的时刻,消费者能够想起这个产品
  3. 所以产生了广告轰炸-为了增强记忆
  4. 所以产生了品牌-为了把信息变成容易记忆的关键词或者图像,好压进我们脑子里面那个小小的,有半衰期的存储器里面去
  5. 互联网广告将改变这一切,google AdWords走出的,仅仅是第一步。
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