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美人她爹 » 2009» May
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May 29, 2009

去西西河逛,看到这篇“【原创】网友与美分党识别指南”,还有相关的讨论,很有趣。现在网络上面早已不是当年一个id身后只有一个人的时代了,企业推手遍地走,五毛美分不如狗。这个时候,信任谁,不信任谁,很重要。

去找以前写的东西,貌似我从2006年1月开始,就在关心这个事情,中间断断续续写了好几篇东西。比如:

传播的思维实验 part 2 信息传递和信任关系 2006/01/24

为什么说非死不可的模式有问题2008/12/09

反六度分隔理论?2008/12/14

还是关于信任2009/01/28

破冰器2009/05/03

这里面集中的一点就是:对于网络上面的某个id说的话,我们如何才知道是否信任?

企业推手,五毛美分的做法,是收集网络上面大家对陌生人的信任,这种信任关系在单个的人和马甲之间,虽然不是很强,但是量大了(通过大量的马甲来制造信息洪流)也很可观,用的是三人成虎这招。

那么怎么才能知道,一个马甲是否可信呢?

非死不可用的是跟杭州一样的办法:实名制。这种东西简单粗暴,而且不符合中国国情:我半夜去贴大字报还要记着蒙张手帕呢,到论坛上面造谣,我会先上传一张身份证复印件么?再说了,我一张身份证能造几个谣言啊,至少先去租几张民工身份证吧。

五度在他的帖子里面,是用对马甲的特性来分析的:注册时间,发帖集合还有语言运用。其实国内的这种斗争更激烈,我不在国内都知道,争当版主就是一个很好的办法。某人辛辛苦苦维护了一个版面,然后找个继任,就等于把一生功力传给了后人,至于新领导获得了群众对老领导的信任以后,是否坚持以前的路线,就是另外一回事了。咦?我为什么把版主叫领导?版主不就是个扫地的么?

另外马甲如今也学的滑了,都看过潜伏了,知道做保密工作。

不过我还是相信,在用户的每个点击里面,蕴含着他/她对某个马甲的信任,这种数据会很有意思。

May 26, 2009

是不是

But It’s Not Google

的缩写啊?

或者按照GNU -> GNU’s Not Unix 的办法,写做:

BING Is Not Google

May 22, 2009

最近NetApp与Data Domain(NASDAQ:DDUP)达成收购协议,DDUP两天上涨了42.87%,在消息传出的第一天,收购交易值就从15亿美元跃升至17.5亿美元。这里聊聊DDUP的技术。

DDUP是数据备份领域的公司。早期的数据备份通常是备份公司内部的数据,备份介质是磁带,备份周期长,数据量相对小。万一需要恢复系统数据,对实效的要求也没那么紧。所以用磁带这种速度慢,每GB成本低的介质,很合适。

在互联网时代,备份的数据量大,数据服务的人数剧增,备份的周期缩短,需要恢复数据的时候,对恢复的速度要求很高,因为数据通常是服务全球的。同时,由于硬盘技术的飞跃性发展,每GB的成本迅速降低。硬盘的存取速度远远超过磁带,这就为使用硬盘替代磁带作为备份介质,提供了可能性。

硬盘的每GB成本虽然迅速降低,但是依然比磁带要高很多,另外海量数据在备份和恢复的时候,硬盘本身的机械结构,也是瓶颈。所以要针对备份数据的特征,将数据里面的重复部分(duplication)去掉,也就是DeDUPlication,这也就是DDUP的股票代号的来源。有人戏称因为DDUP的技术来自Princeton的Kai Li教授,这个DDUP是“Day Day UP”,天天向上的意思,也未可知,不过作为一支股票,Day Day Up的确是好事情。

备份数据里面存在大量的重复部分,很多人把数据比作游泳池加水:每天加的水并不多,但是整个的游泳池很大。如果每天备份的话,每次都备份一个游泳池就太不合算了,应该是备份每天加的那些水。具体到实际操作,因为数据并非简单的添加,而是对很多原有的数据进行修改,所以也并不是备份增量那么简单。

另外一个难点,就是对磁盘上面的海量数据进行操作的时候,如何才能高效的寻找到数据,并对数据进行有效操作。在计算机体系结构里面,存储层次从CPU的cache到内存,再到硬盘,每个层次的存取速度,都是上面一个层次的千分之一,如何利用有限的内存来处理海量的低速硬盘,里面有很多的技巧。这点在我和彼岸以前合作翻译的Google BigTable的论文里面,也有提及。这里面的技术,很多都是目前文件系统和数据库使用的技巧,但是技巧如何合理组合,就是一个技术公司成功的秘密之一了。

在DDUP所在的数据备份领域,还有其他几家公司,DDUP的一个显著不同,是他们使用的硬件,就是普通的PC。我曾经问过DDUP的工程师,他们为何不用特制的硬件。这个问题也是很显然的:因为从DDUP的应用来说,他们要处理的数据单位很大,行话叫数据通路很宽,通用CPU的数据通路都很窄。对方的回应是:由于特制硬件,特别是特制的芯片,如基于FPGA的可编程芯片,虽然可以提供足够的数据通路宽度,但是由于摩尔定律对硬件速度的提升,以及英特尔对CPU质量的保证,使得使用通用CPU比用特制硬件的开发周期大大减少,只要专注开发自己的软件,18个月以后,就可以得到免费的性能提升,几年之内就可以超越使用特制芯片的对手。

这里列出的几个DDUP所在行业的门槛和竞争技巧,其实也都是计算机行业里面众所周知的东西,如何巧妙组合,形成一个公司的竞争力,才是我关心的问题。

May 17, 2009

今天去翻简兄的blog,看到他转载的“许知远:梁启超的感慨与金融危机”,原文在这里。里面说的是梁启超当年去欧洲考察,正好赶上一战以后欧洲的萧条,从而对他的信念产生了巨大的冲击,感到欧洲的科学也并非万能。

文中有句话我非常的喜欢:“这场论战,也显示了日后中国很多争论的特征——它是高度一元思维的,结论总是非此即彼”。即所谓成王败寇。

反观我们今天在网络上面的讨论,依然很难跳出这个是非的争论。古人多么的精确,把争论叫做“是非”,大家争的,无非就是一个是与非的问题。微软当年获取DOS是否正当,Google是否是垄断,盗版是否摧毁了中国的软件产业,SNS是不是浪费时间,美国是否是创新的源泉,某国内互联网公司是否有不正当竞争。

这样的争论,在我看来,其实忽略了重点。

一个事物存在,那么必然有它存在的道理,合乎我们自己相信的道理,于是它就是正确的,就是1;不合乎我们相信的道理,于是它就是错误的,就是0。但是,我们相信的道理,是否就是正确的呢?与其去努力把对方打倒,为何不去理解对方,帮助对方发展呢?同样的,我们自己相信的事物,我们是否去审视过,发现它的不足呢?

就象先辈们看到科技的力量,就崇拜;看到一战的创伤,就怀疑;我们看到网络的力量,就敬仰;看到网络的成瘾性,就恐慌。这里面有多少自己的思考在起作用呢?

在我看来,看到别人能看到的,说别人说过的话,见山则云山,见水则言水,是谁都会的。然而,见山能想到水,见水能想到山,在热炒中能看到危机,在恐慌中能嗅到希望的味道,才难能可贵。

May 15, 2009

今天看到老白的留言,不仅感慨,如今独立的blogger越来越少了,有自己思考的人就更少,再分到IT这块,都不够塞牙缝的。不过不要紧,毛主席语录里有这么一句:

你解放军不跟我走,我就找红军去

前几天和一个同事聊天,他在美国读的大学,正在考虑回国创业。聊起twitter,聊起各种我的奇怪的想法,他觉得很有趣,问我,你觉得你这些想法在中国,为什么会比twitter和blog更有用?

我告诉他,你知道去年冬天,我去国内出差的时候,除了公事,都干了些什么吗?我和我们国内合作公司的那些年轻人一起,每天到公司干活,中午和他们一起吃三块钱一碗的热干面,就是路边小摊的那种在尘土里做出来的,一个一次性饭盒里面,只有面,胡椒粉和一点香菜。我让他们教我发短信,我问他们国内怎么买房,他们怎么养孩子,怎么考虑养老,怎么看待新劳动法,问他们的担心,他们的希望。

我跟出租车司机聊天,问他们的生意,问他们担心什么,喜欢什么,跟他们聊对各地人的看法。我唯一没时间做的事情,是钻到网吧里面去看看大家是怎么上网的。

我坐城铁,看携程的推销人员怎么在火车站扩展网络上面完全没有的市场。

同事问我,你为什么干这些?

我说,在中国,你看哪家美国互联网企业做的好的?都是本土企业把外企踩在泥巴里揍。为什么?因为互联网这个东西,对用户的习惯,文化和行为,依赖太深。一个词翻译过来,就让老百姓看的浑身掉鸡皮疙瘩,还有谁会来用?

我当然没跟同事说主席语录,不过我想我的意思足够清楚了。这些twitter,blog之类的舶来品,根本就是伪军。伪军跟红军,我赌红军赢。

主席语录的另外一个好处,是主席放了个比喻在那里,后人可以往各个方面去引申。这个解放军,可以用来比喻如今的IT博客们。时代进步了,2.0要变3.5了,博客要变成看客了。没关系,跟人不能交流,我去跟计算机交流。写中文没人看,我去写C++,写Java,写php,写javascript,写SQL。想法不能跟新潮的人交流,我就把想法变成程序,让令行禁止的计算机去执行,去把虚无缥缈的想法,变成运行的程序,变成流动的数据,变成无处不在的应用,用适用中国的商业模式,去把流量变成钱,然后去买更多的机器,带宽,还有程序员。

May 12, 2009

最近看很多名人和草根的博客,忽然有种似曾相识的感觉。仿佛又回到了初中的政治课堂,老师在讲台上面说,共产主义一定会实现!资本主义一定会灭亡!共产主义这种新的生产关系,适应了生产力的发展!资本主义是旧的生产关系,不适应生产力的发展,一定会被抛弃!

只不过,现在老师换成了博主,共产主义换成了facebook,twitter和hulu,资本主义换成了报纸,网游和3G。可是,我的反应还是一样:

为什么?

为什么你说SNS就一定会火?没错,人多的地方肯定会有商机,但是,商机是怎么来的?没有人说。

为什么你说twitter就一定会盈利?twitter现在在美国已经被人怀疑是way over rated,没错,会有公司要收购它,但是,被收购以后变成亏空的公司,还少么?

为什么hulu就一定代表新的盈利方向?为什么youtube原来被热炒,现在被狂扁?被狂扁的下一个,会不会是hulu?

我感到很无力,很没劲。

在学校里,老师说大家要有独立思考的能力,于是所有的好学生都说要有独立思考的能力;老师不说了,大家也不独立思考了。现在,风险投资说要创新,于是大家都说要创新;SNS火了,于是SNS是创新;twitter火了,于是twitter是创新;我们这样追下去,能找到下一个创新吗?我们拿着这样的框框去到处框,框到了就夸,能有自己的创新吗?

May 5, 2009

世界上有两种数据结构:

列表,或者是列表的列表

May 3, 2009

这个概念是以前在国内培训的时候学的一个概念,就是说两个陌生人之间,如果需要开始一段对话,那么需要有个由头。英语里面叫ice-breaker,就是比喻两个陌生人之间的信任本来是如同坚冰,需要有个东西去破冰。

最常用的手法一般就是说天气了,英国人喜欢这个,因为他们天气差,一起夸天气好的话,大家都开心;国内以前常用的貌似是要烟,记得当年在新浪驴坛看东风胖马写爬四姑娘山,就是去找川驴要烟抽,如今小资们都健康生活了,估计这个ice-breaker不顶用了。

昨天我下班的时候碰上这么一件事,当时我正往停车场走,一个人过来,穿的挺整齐干净的,脸上带着职业的微笑,一看就是不怀好心,想推销点啥东西的那种人。他过来就跟我说,我能送你一张奥巴马百万美刀么?然后他就递给我一张印的跟真的美刀似的纸,上面的零多的跟津巴布韦的钱差不多,就差用科学计数法来印了,不过最好玩的,是上面印着个奥巴马的大嘴卡通头像。

我一看就乐了,说好啊,多谢你送我钱。

然后我们就聊了几句,原来他是推销基督教的。我想了个借口把他打发走了,看看手里这张东西,忽然觉得他还是挺会使用这个ice-breaker的。

因为这个ice-breaker,首先是给我一个“礼物”。虽然很便宜,但是对我来说,这是个好玩的东西,那么这个礼物的效用就超过了它的价值,于是我就跟他有了共同的话题,然后他才能开始跟我聊他的真实目的。这种方法,挺值得借鉴的。