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October 30, 2009

为尽快让更多被拐儿童回到亲生父母身边,10月27日,公安部打拐办公布了首批60名已解救的未查清身源被拐儿童信息。今后,公安部打拐办还将陆续公布此类儿童。为提供工作效率,请按我们的提示做: 1、有关信息以中华人民共和国公安部政府网站(网址www.mps.gov.cn)“宝贝寻家”栏目内的为准。公安部未授权其他单位或个人公布此类信息。
2、若发现有跟自己孩子相像的,请与案件主办单位联系,或与本地公安机关联系,告知夫妻双方的姓名、家庭地址、联系电话、被拐(失踪)儿童基本情况、认定的理由等信息。
3、如果尚未采血做DNA,请立即到就近的公安机关报告情况,申请采血检测。公安机关将免费采血检测入库比对。
4、若接到确认通知,请在现住地等待,公安机关将把孩子送回家长身边。
5、等待结果期间,请不要盲目跑到办案单位,以减少不必要的开支。

祝愿家长们早日与孩子团聚!祝愿宝贝早日回家!

公安部“打拐”专项行动办公室
二〇〇九年十月二十九日

被解救儿童照片

http://www.mps.gov.cn/n16/n983040/n1928424/n2023952/index.html

发烧了,所以写的是胡话,错了是一定的,万一说对了,您多担待。

病休在家无聊,去看keso的google reader。看见谢文和麦田关于中国互联网是否有白领市场的讨论。恕我发烧+泰诺状态的愚钝,问一下:领子的颜色,有那么重要么?

我在国内工作的时候,一家人的工资在刚毕业的学生里面算高的,出门打车,没事还旅个游啥的。可是我和老婆算白领么?我不觉得,因为我们还是学生时代的思维和习惯,甚至比读书的时候还节约,因为要买房要考虑养娃。那个时候正好国内宣扬软件工人,我某次买了件蓝衬衣,就和老婆说:你看,我就是一蓝领。

后来出国读书工作,还是一样的节省。我不觉得白领就一定怎么样,白领就一定有钱么?白领就一定是个好市场么?

其实这种垂直的市场细分,在互联网世界里面,是很危险的一个事情。互联网里面有个转化率的概念,无论是卖东西,还是卖广告,用户大都是看看完事,真正付钱的或者点击的,很少很少,写成分数,就是一个极少的可以给企业产生收入的用户,除以庞大的用户群。所以Google要把自己的名字取成最大的数,就是要和那个恐怖的大分母去抗衡。

你看如今世界上面那些做的好的互联网公司,很少是走垂直路线的,走垂直路线的里面,活下来的也都是那些利润极其丰厚的细分。这就好像在一片龟裂的土地上面找食物,如果你在地面上,也就是通用的市场里面找,总还是能找到足够的食物来过活;但是如果你铁了心要钻到一条缝(美其名曰市场细分)里面去,那么只好自求多福,那条细分里面的食物足够多了。

October 27, 2009

原文在这里

嗯,刺激一下大家的爱国热情。

October 25, 2009

推荐一下

今天看到keso写“东拉西扯:从香港看中国互联网”。我看别人的文章,很少有完全同意别人意见的时候,一来是中文IT界独立的思想和声音太少,比大熊猫还少;二来是我一直坚持的质疑态度,无论是谁,只要他的意见值得我思考,那么必然要过质疑这关。

keso在文中最后提到“投资者关心中国互联网,其实只是关心营销手段,关心业务形态,关心市场地位,很少有投资者真正关心互联网的根本——技术”。这是两个论断:

  1. 投资者更多的是把中国互联网市场,当作是其他市场或者手段的简单延伸:或者是美国互联网的N+1,或者是电视等传播方式的N+1。
  2. 互联网的根本力量,在于技术,而非其他。

第一个论断我基本赞成,无论是在硅谷还是在西雅图,除了对中国互联网有深刻理解的几个人,哪怕是大公司的VP们,对中国互联网也只是雾里看花,谈话中经常会有自觉不自觉的错误假设。也难怪,就连我这样的老网虫,离开了那个环境一段时间,也需要回去和大家一起发发短信玩玩游戏,才能体会到新的变化。

第二个论断则让人很怀疑:为什么互联网的力量源泉是技术,而不是商业模式,不是营销手段,不是别的什么东西?虽然作为一个工程师,我很高兴听到keso这样说;但是作为一个商人,我还是很担心我的钱包。

我想唯一能够说服我的理由,就是技术,只有技术,能够用同样的成本,带来几个数量级的效用。我们可以看看现有的这些成功的互联网公司:

  1. Amazon让用户不用出门,就能买到平时需要跑一天甚至几天才能买到的东西。
  2. Ebay让用户能够找到世界上面只有几个人才拥有的东西。
  3. Google检索了世界上面所有不需要密码就能访问的网页,还有很多需要密码才能访问的。
  4. 苹果的iphone更是让人从计算机那里获得了自由,计算机从谋生工具,变成了时尚饰品。

技术等于为我们创造了一个新天地,在这个新天地里面,新的商业模式可以生长出来,已有的营销手段可以改头换面,在新的天地里发展。如果说,营销手段对商业的推动是加法,那么商业模式对商业的推动是乘法,技术对于商业的推动,则是指数级别的。

我曾经想过一个问题:为什么美国对技术创新如此热衷?我的解释是:如今的技术创新,其实是几百年以来工业革命的继续。西方从工业革命尝到了甜头,占据了几乎大半个世界,对技术上瘾也是自然的。

回到原来的话题。既然技术是如此重要,那么为什么:

  1. 投资人对中国互联网市场的技术不重视?
  2. 技术是否是中国互联网新企业成功的利器?
October 22, 2009

先简单介绍一下,King County就是西雅图所在的县。美国是这么个层次:联邦(federal),州(state),县(county),然后下面是市(city)。西雅图周边的公车系统由King County Metro来运营,大概是美国最好的几个公车系统了:便宜,准时,班次合理。

这次主要是King County Metro的人想要了解软件开发人员对数据的需求,主要是公车班次,路线这些相对稳定的数据,以及公车当前位置这种实时信息的需求。这种数据在中国,其实已经很常见了,很多公车都有GPS定位,然后上传到统一的界面供用户使用。但是在美国,这方面还非常落后,比如公车上面虽然有wifi,但是却没有GPS,因为政府没有钱。

这次讨论的目的,就是看开发人员需要什么样的数据,然后Metro怎么来提供。相关的软件公司,包括微软和Google都来了人,和一群开发人员坐在一起讨论。华盛顿大学计算机系的一个博士生Brian做了一个网站,叫onebusaway,也来了。这个网站很受欢迎,因为西雅图很多人坐公车上下班。

讨论的热点:实时数据。

October 21, 2009

最近几天在西西河看关于sensor network / RFID的讨论,在这里整理一下自己的思路。

Sensor network主要是以smart dust (智能灰尘)为主的,带有探测器,处理器和发射单元的微型模块组成mesh network,然后探测信息,传递信息。相关的RFID也是类似的东西,但是以单个的模块为主,最初的卖点是可以在看不到的情况下读取,比如藏在货架深处的物品,目标是取代条码。

但是随着几年的应用,包括沃尔玛这样的巨头也不得不承认,RFID这个东西,一来是成本高,二来是可靠性差(比如在金属货架里面的物品就很难被读取),所以还是有困难。同时RFID也在发展,出现了有源和无源的类型,某些应用发展的也不错,比如老大妈上公交车,就知道年轻女孩扭屁股就可以坐车,这就是无源RFID的典型应用。另外国内某些城际铁路,比如广深线的和谐号,车票就是一张内嵌RFID的纸,对着光可以看到芯片和天线。考虑到车票本身才70人民币,这个RFID的成本已经很低了。

我在讨论的时候说到,其实这个RFID和条码的竞争,是硅和纸的竞争的新方向。以前是计算机和书的竞争,当年的计算机有今天RFID的所有缺点:贵,不可靠,需要电源。但是计算机最后胜出,是因为计算机发挥了自己的优势:单次修改的成本低,,每个copy的成本低,海量存储(或者说,每bit的存储体积低),加上后来的网络,导致传播成本也低,于是造成了今天纸媒被取代的结果。

那么sensor / RFID如果需要和条码竞争,也应该发挥自己的优势,而不是单纯拼成本。比如上期连线杂志就有一个很好的应用:把地中海的活鱼,急冻以后运到纽约的餐馆去。中间鱼是和一个sensor冻在一起的,这个sensor记录了运输过程中鱼的温度变化。这个应用就很好的避开了sensor的缺点:贵,因为鱼的质量和sensor的价格相比,更贵重。而发挥了sensor的优点:海量存储和智能探测。

这就是以己之长,击人之短了。

October 19, 2009

圣海伦斯火山和亚当斯火山(Mt. St. Helens and Mt. Adams)

圣海伦斯火山和亚当斯火山(Mt. St. Helens and Mt. Adams)

Mt. Rainier和高山草甸

Mt. Rainier和高山草甸

从郁金香花海远眺面包师山(Mt. Baker)

从郁金香花海远眺面包师山(Mt. Baker)

嗯,怎么整出这么酸的一句话,让我吐一下先。

上次聊西雅图,说到西雅图南边的Tacoma,在印第安人的语言里面,是山的意思。而那座山,就是著名的Mt. Rainier。有人把Mt. Rainier翻译成“雨人山”,这个就是属于文盲了,Rainier不是Rainer,多一个i呢。也有人直接翻译成“雷尼尔”,也怪怪的。

西雅图周围都是山,除了这个Mt. Rainier,还有著名的奥林匹克群山,这些山在西雅图西边的奥林匹克半岛,就是它们挡住了从太平洋来的水汽。所以西雅图冬天虽然阴天很多(现在外面就阴着呢),但是实际的年降水量,反而没有东部的纽约多。

西雅图这边更多的山,是火山。比如Mt. Rainier,就是一座休眠火山,上次喷发是1820年到1854年之间。更著名的活火山,就是圣海伦斯火山,Mt. St. Helens 了。上次大喷发是1980年,把一个山头都轰掉了。前几年还喷出蒸汽。

本地的印第安人有个故事,说Mt. Adams,就是本地另外一座休眠火山,是老公。Mt. Rainier是他的一个老婆,Mt. St. Helens火山是他的另外一个老婆。为了不让两个老婆打架,Mt. Adams把她们分开,这样她们两个彼此看不见,但是Mt. Adams可以看见她们两个。这里的地形的确如此,只有Mt. Adams那里可以看见另外两座山。

圣海伦斯火山善妒,经常发脾气,扔点东西过去。而Mt. Rainier则比较安静,一般不发脾气。历史上面也是圣海伦斯火山喷发的多。我的一个同学在1980年的时候,住在圣海伦斯南边的波特兰市。她说那天她和全家在饭馆吃饭,她正在玩,忽然天暗了下来,大家出去看看,说:哦,火山喷发了。回来继续吃饭。吃好饭,外面车子上面就全是灰。

西雅图北边还有一座Mt. Baker,面包师山,也是一座休眠火山。这些山都在落基山脉的外缘,叫做cascasdes,就是落基山脉的裙边了。有了这些山,再加上从太平洋来的水汽和温暖的洋流,让西雅图的地形非常的丰富,而丰富的地形,又养育了丰富的物种。

奥林匹克群山

苔藓和电话亭

苔藓和电话亭

October 13, 2009

最近看了meebo的co-founders之一,CEO Seth Sternberg在TechCrunch的连载:

From Nothing To Something. How To Get There

Finding Your Co-Founders

第一篇很不错,第二篇则不敢恭维。因为作者说,co-founders最好是学商务的和工程师这样的配合,原则是知识面要有尽量少的重合。

那么,google的co-founders的重合率基本是100%,这是个不好的组合,微软的co-founders是一起写程序的,也是不好的组合。

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