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April 27, 2010

在craigslist上面卖车,结果什么人都来了,有很好的人,跑来看车,还很抱歉的不停说,不好意思让你久等了,弄得我以为他是日本人。也有一家都来看车的,50多岁的老爹在前面验车,30多的妈妈在一边当副驾,我和他们5岁的女儿在后面聊天,探讨她的小猪存钱罐里面的钱,能买几辆这样的车。

还有人发信来说,我有7000只面纱手套,换你的车好不好?也有人上来就砍500刀,还一副我亏本买你的车,你居然敢不从的口气。最有意思的是刚才一个人打电话过来,说他没有什么钱,砍800刀问我卖不卖,然后建议我搞点人道主义,不能总是盯着钱。我说是啊,我其实已经把价钱弄得很公道了,对方就把电话挂了。

April 21, 2010

此地无银的说一句,不是软文。本来想批评的,但是其中一篇文章让我改变了想法。

最早知道喷嚏网,是从一个朋友的buzz上面看到的。同样是这个朋友,在他多年前海龟之时,我们给他送行的饭局上面,介绍我去看keso的blog,我从此开始写blog,所以对他的推荐,我是一直很重视的。他最近经常在buzz上面发一些喷嚏网的文章,于是我就跟着去看。具体的网址为了避嫌我就不给链接了,反正有google。

看了文章我发现,这个网站的内容原创不多,基本上是从著名的blog和其他网站弄来的东西,本来我对这种做法是很不齿的,因为复制打击了原创,而且让我不爽的地方,还有这个网站的原文链接很多是不对的,再加上他们的主旨:阅读,发现和分享,让我总是想起译言。

但是这个网站也的确有它的独到之处。那些文章选的还算比较到位,基本上都是我喜欢看的东西,排版和色调也很干净整齐,可以看出是有人在后面精心挑选内容的。我承认我是懒人,于是就把这个网站当成我的读者文摘了。

让我放弃骂他们的念头的,是这篇文章:

网络写手千字两分钱 每月写十万字会饿死

发现这篇文章,想起愚人节那天我写的内容字节膨胀的事情,觉得还是很有趣的:自己想的事情,在大洋的那一边,也有人在讨论,这种感觉是很奇妙的。我想选这篇文章的编辑,估计跟我兴趣差不多。想到这一层,我骂人的底气顿时没有了。

不过我还是不看好这种方式。虽然和我兴趣类似的编辑帮我找到了文章,提供了他或者她的过滤和挑选服务,但是这种人工搜选的方式,我不知道能维持多久。特别是他们的广告,和译言一样,都是凡客诚品的居多,再有一点amazon的。(我不知道凡客诚品的广告值多少钱,如果哪位碰巧知道,请告诉我)

总之我对这个网站有点不知道该说啥,我反对他们直接抓取文章的方式,但是我也没有像一个版权信徒那样,一定要跑到原创作者那里去看,从他们的广告方式看,他们也未必能跟原创作者分成,他们搜选的工作的确帮助我解决了过载的问题,也没有像机器那样只盯着科技文章,不过他们能维持多久,我不知道。既然骂也不是,捧也不行,我就说说我对中文原创内容和市场的一点想法:

从这个事情看,网络上面有不少不错的中文原创作品,但是没有一种合适的方式来为这些作者埋单。这个或许是整个问题的症结之一,而不是我们一向说的,对版权的漠视是唯一的问题。就算现在把版权都维护好了,也未必能有足够多的付费用户来维持这些作者,以及中间传播渠道的支出。而我们的广告收入也不能产生足够多的收入来维持一个对普通用户免费的系统,因为商业活动不多,广告也不够值钱。

April 14, 2010

前面两次创业小组讨论,我把儿子带到会场,我说是为了让他多认识一下将来发财了的叔叔阿姨们。朋友们笑说:这个叫创业从娃娃抓起。

当然他一个小东西,除了对叔叔阿姨给的点心有兴趣,也只有捣乱或者睡觉的份儿了。不过我女儿倒是有一个发现,值得说一下。

某天我们一起看电视,然后看到汽车的广告。女儿问:爸爸,中国的电视上面,广告和我们这里不一样。我说:有什么不一样呢?女儿说:美国的电视广告里面,都是汽车。中国的电视上,广告都是牙膏。

我相信我女儿的观察力,同时我也相信,两个市场里面的商家,都是非常聪明的人,不会把钱花在无用的地方。那么,是不是可以说,中国广告的单次价值,其实比美国广告的单次价值低很多呢?因为中国人口大概是美国的5到6倍,而汽车比牙膏,那可是贵了不知道多少倍。

原文在这里

服务器里面的高端CPU出货很好,另外笔记本CPU也卖的不错。可以看做是整个internet复苏的迹象:消费者对笔记本的需求增加,互联网公司也加大了对服务器的投入。

April 6, 2010

排名不分先后

重庆,成都,大连,哈尔滨,沈阳,西安,武汉

原因很简单,阳萌写“二线城市的黄金十年”,的确如此,随着高速廉价交通网络的建成,这些城市因为他们相对低廉的房价,良好的教育环境,会是新的增长地区。另外一个更重要的因素,是中国的经济从廉价的加工,转型到更高利润的制造业,甚至不需要什么运力的软件和互联网业,这些城市的优势会更加明显。

April 4, 2010

下午给我做的学区查询网站

http://www.schooldistrictfinder.com/

提交了Adsense申请,刚才发现被拒绝了。理由是“Under construction”。这个事情有点搞笑,因为我的这个网站已经运行了两年多了,很多朋友都用过,觉得不错。我还收到过完全不认识的印度朋友和俄国朋友的感谢信,希望我能继续优化这个站。

我基本上能理解为什么Adsense不批准申请,因为这个站是google map的meshup,从爬虫的眼里看去,基本上就只有一页,后台的那全美一万四千个学区,数十万学校和更多的优化信息,都是需要查询才知道的,而且是用ajax来获取的,这些爬虫都无法知晓。所以这个站的pagerank也不高,因为就这一页,对爬虫太不友好了。

拒信里面也提到,网站需要有很多链接和内容,才能被看做是基本完成。我虽然服气,但是不得不暗自猜想:他们看来是没有真人来用这个站,就是跑了一段程序,算了算页面和链接,就直接拒了。

那好吧,反正有数据,产生几十万个页面,也就是一段程序的事儿。不过,网站是否有用,程序还是不知道,需要人来用才行。

April 3, 2010

一直有这个想法:什么时候软件和互联网服务也变成是中国制造呢?

其实编写软件和互联网服务,也是一种生产制造的过程,80年代刚开始的时候,中国很多东西都不会制造,先是买机器,买生产线,然后是自己造机器,自己造生产线,现在一般的商品大都是中国制造了。现在是在中国设计产品,等中国学会了系统的编写软件,那个时候软件和互联网服务,就都是中国造了。同时利润很高的互联网服务的相关业务,比如数据中心的建立,运转和维护,也应该会集中到中国来。

从这个角度看,建立一个不受过滤的互联网特区,还是很值得搞的。当年经济特区没有把中国搞垮,反而给了中国高速发展的30年。现在搞这个更高利润的互联网和软件特区,应该也是有前途的。

April 2, 2010

今天在SQL那里看到社交媒体泡沫一文。提到的原文很有意思。基本的意思,就是当前社交网络里面的关系,是简单化的,没有很多价值的关系。因为实际的,有用的关系,是一条边的两个端点投入很多成本建立起来的,而社交网络则简单的归结为关系。

我觉得可以声称,天下的生物都是我的好友,只要他她它上网。

而那篇原文里面最后一个链接则更有意思:That’s where the future of media lies.这篇文章里面,作者论述了新型媒体的形态,并且取了一个好玩的名字:nichepaper。这篇文章是去年夏天的东西了,还是很多值得回味的地方。

btw这些东西是我心情不好的时候看来的,看来有人说的,当上帝关上一扇门,总会打开一扇窗,还是很有道理的。我虽然不是教徒,但是这里面的哲学意义,我照单全收。

April 1, 2010

阳萌写的“闲说虚拟经济”,我总结成一句话,就是虚拟经济满足了马斯洛金字塔上面的三层:社交需求,尊重需求和自我实现需求。

按照马斯洛的理论,5个层次里面:生理需求、安全需求、社交需求、尊重需求和自我实现需求,是先要实现了底层的,才会去追求高层的,先要吃饱,才会去想不生病。这个理论是1943年提出的,事实上我对这个理论所论述的需求实现的顺序,一直有疑问。原因很简单,因为这种实现的顺序,特别是上面三层的顺序,在现实中充满了反例。

在我看来,人对需求的追求,不是层次性的,而是以最小代价需求满足感的最大化为目标的。因为除了饥饿,恐惧这些身体因素,会驱动人不停的满足第一和第二层需求以外,其他的需求,都是人去追求的,而不是被迫去满足的。而在追求的过程中,就会有挫折。求之不得而形成的需求空洞,需要用其他的满足感来填补。

我这里的假设是:人是经济动物。对需求的满足,是要消耗金钱和力气的,是有成本的。在不能满足某些需求的时候,会转而寻求对其他需求的满足。如果有更廉价的满足需求的方式,则其他需求也可以提前被满足。

有人把沉醉于网络和游戏斥为逃避现实。但是,什么是现实?能够最终影响到人的,就是现实。在古代一个农家看来,自己的孩子放牛的时候看书,就是逃避现实,因为书不能吃不能喝,然而读书却可以为这个孩子提供另外一条出路。现在,网络构成的虚拟环境,已经能够对人的生活产生足够的影响,那些当年躲到网络这个世外桃源的人,如今有的已经成为了网络世界里面很有影响的人物。

一个东西是虚还是实,其实主要看有多少人去认同它。被众多的人认同,纸片和硬盘上面的数据,都可以是现实的。

经常看到两种对立的观点,一种说:互联网上面内容很多,用户有太多的选择,所以内容不重要,被免费复制是好事情,因为被免费复制,或者说被盗版,其实就是被传播。

另外一种说,不对,内容数量多,但是大多数都是垃圾,优质的内容少之又少。优质的内容和垃圾在盗版面前一样不值钱,而产生优质内容的成本,远远高于那些垃圾。于是最后剩下的,都是垃圾。

这个事情再加上商业模式,就更好玩了。因为目前对付盗版的商业模式很单一:就是广告。内容被免费的大量复制,里面携带的广告信息也被大量传播。于是在盗版铺天盖地的地方,广告也铺天盖地。无论是贺岁片,还是春晚,都充斥着嵌入广告。

我已经很久没有去起点看那些玄幻小说了,记得当年写玄幻的人,动辄就是一天几万字,内容无非是,兽族又发动了几百万士兵的进攻,人族又支持不住,出动公主请求神族救援,然后一段段的床戏。起点好歹为小说作者维护了一个收费的方式,但是内容便宜,作者就要让字节通胀来抵抗。如果哪天这些小说网站不收费了,而那些作者还不改行的话,估计小说里面兽族进攻的时候,会用搜狗来搜索地图的,而神族最后的神器,或许是某个山寨手机。对,嵌入广告基本上是免费内容唯一的出路了。

内容很多,优质的内容很少。优质的内容对用户有强大的吸引力,于是被疯狂的复制,进一步打击作者的积极性。最后大家都去制造垃圾,因为在垃圾堆里面,多占一块地也是好的。

那么,谁来制造优质的内容呢?