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February 6, 2009

最近四处看到很多关于云计算的东西。说实在的,我第一次听说这个概念的时候,感觉就好像用搜狗输入法打”yuncai”结果一样:晕菜。

各个大公司的副总裁们到处说,云计算是好多PC连在一起,集群,MapReduce,容错,价格优势,不怕病毒,还有好多好多好处。用户只要拿个上网本,或者拿个智能手机,就走遍天下都不怕。可是我就不明白,从用户这边看过去,这一大片云彩,跟当年的大型机,有啥不一样的呢?

除了以前用的是单色终端,现在用的是彩屏上网本;以前用的是连线的终端,现在用的是无线网;以前用的是命令行,现在用的是web,是图形界面;以前用的是一个大型机,现在是一堆PC在一起。但是,那个在中心的计算工具,依然是一堆硬件和软件,还有用户的数据;用户在上面的权限,依然是被某些管理员控制;用户的数据,依然是可以被管理员偷窥;容错虽然比以前好了,但是出错的时候,用户依然是无能为力。

与其把所有的数据都交给这样一朵大云彩:

我宁可相信这样一堆小云彩:

当年用户从大型机的城堡里冲出来,尽管面对死机,病毒,硬盘失效的危险,但是对自己数据的控制,对计算能力的追求是无价的。如今云计算所宣称的廉价,易用,其实更多的是PC系统应做但没有做的事情。相对于一朵大云彩,我更希望我的车库里有一个小的集群,有64个内核的处理能力,有32TB热备份的硬盘。我只需要在家里用上网本远程桌面登录这个集群上面运行的一个虚拟机,剩余的处理能力去支持家里其他人的需求。如果感染了病毒,就删除这个感染的虚拟机;如果硬盘坏了,买个新的插上;如果机器旧了,买个新盒子插上;机器现在300美刀一个,至少能用两年,我才不要每个月花30刀去玩什么我不能控制的云彩。

我买上网本,绝对不是讨厌PC的计算能力,我只是讨厌巨大的机箱,沉重的电池,发热的硬盘。这些东西可以远在天边的大云彩里,但是如果在手边的小云彩里,岂不是更好?我要那个大云彩干什么?我家里又没有整个的互联网数据要处理,我只要足够我自己用的处理能力就可以了。让那个大云彩去处理整个互联网吧,反正它是免费的。

要拥有家里的小云彩,我需要小规模的集群软件,我需要虚拟机软件。这些都是PC软件商应该做的,也是他们新的机会。让用户继续拥有他们的数据吧,不管这些数据是作业,是账单,是情书,是多年前的记忆,还是藏在18层目录下的A片,它可以是任何用户不愿意让别人看到的东西。既然上次我们从大型机的城堡里逃走的时候,每个人都带了一个大型机的克隆,那么这次我们为什么不能带一片小云彩走呢?

让“挥一挥衣袖,不带走一片云彩”永远的留在诗篇里吧,工程师要做的,是

挥挥扳手,顺走一片云彩,放在安全的储藏室里。

3 Comments »

  1. 你好,同意你的看法。毕竟个人的数据具有私密性,与存银行的钞票具有不同等的性质。半导体技术与IT技术的飞速发展,在家庭构建一个小型计算与数据中心是完全可能并且也是一个趋势。

    Comment by kenn — January 27, 2010 @ 11:53 pm

  2. 同感。
    但是对很多普通用户来说,与其自己维护机子还不如让ms,google维护,而对隐私的问题,反正email里面什么都发了,再把其它的东西交给别人托管也无所谓了。

    当然大多数用户可能处于这种用户和波主的中间。

    我想可不可以有一个折中的办法:把一部分用户数据进行加密,压缩后传到云server上。让云提供商不能查看用户数据。如果云上的应用要处理某些敏感数据,它会把数据和code通过加密信道交给第三方或用户自家机子来做。整个过程受一个第三方commitee监查。同时,用户可以设定某些数据要往自家机子上同步。这样万一这家云提供商不能解决问题,可以很方便的马上换另一家。云服务商对系统failure进行赔偿。

    这只是一个很初步的想法。很显然这种防范也不是绝对的。但说到底,对普通用户来说,什么防范是绝对的呢?只求一个可以接受的trade off而已。

    随着手机,上网本等更加贴近用户的thin client的发展,普通用户也越来越需要有server支持。要自己维护server对普通用户并不容易。这样大云支持应该还是会有很大市场。

    当然这个估计还需要5年才能成气候。现在有个人server支持的手机应用还不是很多。但我个人觉得这一块很有前途。

    如果人人有一个小云会不会还有一些其他问题?比如nat负荷太重,网络带宽难以管理(互联应该是云不可或缺的一个feature,即使对普通用户)等等。感觉现在ISP的uplink带宽很可能不够用。以及不可避免的能耗与环保问题。

    现在虚拟技术发展很快。把虚拟server从自家机子移到云上,或者从云上移到自家机子上,或者split应该都不是很困难。这种情况下云的最终解决应该是大云和小云的combination,具体的组成由市场决定。

    不过这要成真,市场上又可以来一次大洗牌了。。。。。

    总之这一块应该有很多创业公司的机会是没错的。

    Comment by song — January 28, 2010 @ 10:49 am

  3. fuhki997yfgv Did not like it a few years than the existing bonds, and we have never seen before, like all the Bond films.

    Comment by thomas sabo — January 16, 2013 @ 1:29 am

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