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February 11, 2009

听说白鸦和keso在抬杠,我先是看到白鸦关于如何了解用户真正需求的文章,里面说到福特看到了用户的真正需求不是要一匹更快的马,而是更快的交通工具。后来为了找到keso的文章,我还专门去注册了5Gme,这才看到keso说,要是没有内燃机这个发明,福特估计也没戏。

看这种讨论挺好玩的,有时候让我想起当年看大专辩论赛,两边说的都有理,谁也说服不了谁,仔细一想,原来他们说的不是一码事。

比如这个关于用户需求和满足需求的讨论吧,白鸦说的,是河水上下游有水位差,可以用来发电;keso说的,是怎么发电的问题,究竟是筑坝,还是别的什么。有的时候,水位差很大,但是没有那个技术在相应的地质环境筑坝,也不能施工;而白鸦是要先找到最大的水位落差,再去考虑筑坝的事情。

有的时候历史是有点偶然的,比如搜索这个事情,大家现在都知道搜索重要,但是10年以前,我面对互联网,就发愁怎么才能找到我需要的东西。说明那个时候,搜索的需求就存在了。当时搜索的爬虫技术很成熟了,能找到很多网页,但是无法有效区分网页和关键词的相关程度,要看很多网页才能找到一个适合自己的,命中率很低。于是搜索只能是去雅虎找人工分类,而人工分类的处理能力有限,很多多层分类不仅不符合部分人的思维方式,而且分类数据更新很慢,所以搜索并不能满足很多人的需求,自己的书签页面反而更有用,人们对搜索也不是那么热衷。直到google变得热门,搜索变得简单,搜索才成为日常上网的一部分。

从这个事情可以看出,很多时候,人的需求其实是被现实情况压抑着的,往往是因为满足这种需求的成本过高。一旦某种因素,比如技术,使得满足这种需求的成本成级数降低,需求才被释放出来。比如内燃机让人可以半个小时就跑马一天才能走的路,比如google在半秒钟里就能返回我需要的结果。

我其实不太关心这种争论的高下,很多时候,产品的成功就好像吹气球,突破口是那个最薄弱的地方,可以是技术,可以是用户体验,有很多可能,他们的共同点,是让用户能够以非常低廉的成本,来满足需求。

3 Comments »

  1. 任何新技术都是在人类的惰性驱使下促成的,就看这惰性的程度,你说的搜索引擎也是因为当时找网页太麻烦才有google的。
    为什么用户需求很难把握,在我看来主要是很多时候用户自己都不知道自己需要怎样的服务,在iPod触摸式导航出来前并没有人要求希望有公司设计个触摸式导航的mp3,所以往往这些需求是产品公司自己创作出来的,但命中率不高,因为要正好符合当时人们的惰性,如果人们还不够懒的话可能就变成超前产品。

    Comment by 橘左近 — February 12, 2009 @ 7:12 pm

  2. 有意思

    Comment by 聊天室 — February 13, 2009 @ 1:29 am

  3. 只要让用户知道怎么解决问题就不差钱了,方法和过程对用户来说,往往不是那么的重要可能。hao123毕竟在搜索引擎以外生存了好久。

    Comment by RK5486 — February 23, 2009 @ 7:24 am

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