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October 25, 2009

今天看到keso写“东拉西扯:从香港看中国互联网”。我看别人的文章,很少有完全同意别人意见的时候,一来是中文IT界独立的思想和声音太少,比大熊猫还少;二来是我一直坚持的质疑态度,无论是谁,只要他的意见值得我思考,那么必然要过质疑这关。

keso在文中最后提到“投资者关心中国互联网,其实只是关心营销手段,关心业务形态,关心市场地位,很少有投资者真正关心互联网的根本——技术”。这是两个论断:

  1. 投资者更多的是把中国互联网市场,当作是其他市场或者手段的简单延伸:或者是美国互联网的N+1,或者是电视等传播方式的N+1。
  2. 互联网的根本力量,在于技术,而非其他。

第一个论断我基本赞成,无论是在硅谷还是在西雅图,除了对中国互联网有深刻理解的几个人,哪怕是大公司的VP们,对中国互联网也只是雾里看花,谈话中经常会有自觉不自觉的错误假设。也难怪,就连我这样的老网虫,离开了那个环境一段时间,也需要回去和大家一起发发短信玩玩游戏,才能体会到新的变化。

第二个论断则让人很怀疑:为什么互联网的力量源泉是技术,而不是商业模式,不是营销手段,不是别的什么东西?虽然作为一个工程师,我很高兴听到keso这样说;但是作为一个商人,我还是很担心我的钱包。

我想唯一能够说服我的理由,就是技术,只有技术,能够用同样的成本,带来几个数量级的效用。我们可以看看现有的这些成功的互联网公司:

  1. Amazon让用户不用出门,就能买到平时需要跑一天甚至几天才能买到的东西。
  2. Ebay让用户能够找到世界上面只有几个人才拥有的东西。
  3. Google检索了世界上面所有不需要密码就能访问的网页,还有很多需要密码才能访问的。
  4. 苹果的iphone更是让人从计算机那里获得了自由,计算机从谋生工具,变成了时尚饰品。

技术等于为我们创造了一个新天地,在这个新天地里面,新的商业模式可以生长出来,已有的营销手段可以改头换面,在新的天地里发展。如果说,营销手段对商业的推动是加法,那么商业模式对商业的推动是乘法,技术对于商业的推动,则是指数级别的。

我曾经想过一个问题:为什么美国对技术创新如此热衷?我的解释是:如今的技术创新,其实是几百年以来工业革命的继续。西方从工业革命尝到了甜头,占据了几乎大半个世界,对技术上瘾也是自然的。

回到原来的话题。既然技术是如此重要,那么为什么:

  1. 投资人对中国互联网市场的技术不重视?
  2. 技术是否是中国互联网新企业成功的利器?

7 Comments »


  1. Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/samsongli/meirendaddy.com/blog/wp-includes/kses.php on line 947

    Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/samsongli/meirendaddy.com/blog/wp-includes/kses.php on line 948

    [...] 美人她爹 » 为什么是技术而不是别的 http://www.meirendaddy.com/blog/?p=624 – view page – cached 1. 投资者更多的是把中国互联网市场,当作是其他市场或者手段的简单延伸:或者是美国互联网的N+1,或者是电视等传播方式的N+1。 2…. (Read more)1. 投资者更多的是把中国互联网市场,当作是其他市场或者手段的简单延伸:或者是美国互联网的N+1,或者是电视等传播方式的N+1。 2. 互联网的根本力量,在于技术,而非其他。 (Read less) — From the page [...]

    Pingback by Twitter Trackbacks for 美人她爹 » 为什么是技术而不是别的 [meirendaddy.com] on Topsy.com — October 25, 2009 @ 5:53 pm

  2. 1,中国没什么他们看得上的技术,看上的是市场,技术他们有
    2,技术也不是中国互联网新企业成功的利器,中国现在能把一个现有的技术应用好,已经能大发了

    Comment by 国平 — October 25, 2009 @ 6:57 pm

  3. 1,中国市场比较浮躁,人多(基数大),粗放;

    2,中国企业自主研发技术,以现状来看,很难,很可能出现「领跑一圈然后被对手赶超」的尴尬境地,如魅族M8和遨游浏览器的双核心。

    Comment by Johnnight — October 25, 2009 @ 9:21 pm

  4. 补充一下,我觉得这片儿技术路线和商用路线走的最好的是以MTK为首的山寨企业——不,准确的说、正因为这些买下MTK授权的企业无法在技术上有更多开拓,所以把人性化追求到了极致吧。

    Comment by Johnnight — October 25, 2009 @ 9:25 pm

  5. 大概是因为中国的一个传统——学以致用。不少中国企业可能会本能地认为商业就是商业,技术就是技术,要赚钱,最直接的就是搞商业营销,技术不是最直接产生利润的工具,所以不靠谱。

    就像我们如果到二三十岁还有一些不能直接产生效益的兴趣爱好,长辈们就会跑出来教育说,去干点正事,别整天不靠谱。如果一个热爱绘画的人,又没在这方面获得成就,不能直接产生效益,就会被说成不靠谱,但他们都不会去考虑学习绘画给这个人一生带来的好处。

    这个例子可能不是最恰当的,但我觉得在逻辑上是一脉相承的。

    Comment by trai25 — October 25, 2009 @ 10:58 pm

  6. “只有技术,能够用同样的成本,带来几个数量级的效用”,或者反过来说,同样的效用以几分之一的成本来实现。但在中国,人工成本很低。。。

    Comment by laolu — December 11, 2009 @ 7:39 am

  7. @laolu,人工和机器的合理配置,在各个国家,甚至在一个国家的不同地区,都是不一样的。

    Comment by 美人她爹 — December 13, 2009 @ 11:51 pm

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