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November 3, 2008

在谷歌黑板报上的“浪潮之巅”,大概是我看黑板报的唯一动力了。在最新的一篇“信息产业的规律性 (一)”里,吴军研究员提到了产业和自然界的类比。其实,除了一个行业里的猴群类比之外,在产业的演进上,也可以和自然界进行类比。比如,吴军研究员在最后一段提到:

“随着产业的变革,一个主导公司不可能靠着吃老本而成为百年老店。在道琼斯工业指数中最早的三十家公司,现在只有五六家还在今天的三十家列表中。在科技工业领域,一些内在的规律加速了它的新陈代谢。”

如果我们看看从硅到搜索引擎的演进过程,这个过程可以用一个“池塘模型”来描述。

整个IT产业,是建立在硅的基础之上的。最早的量子力学的基础,导致了二极管和三极管的产生。这些领域目前已经没有特别多的研究,因为整个理论体系已经完善,更重要的是,没有很多可以直接产生利润的热点了。相应的,硅片及其设备生产的技术公司,如Applied Material等,也已经成熟,甚至有所衰退。这些,是池塘下面坚硬的岩石。它们因为产业成熟而没有很大的发展,但是由于同样的原因,在经济波动的时候,受到的影响也相对小一些。

基于芯片制造产业的芯片设计产业,如Intel,ARM等,还有其他硬件厂商,如制造主板的华硕,制造显卡的NVidia,是岩石之上的泥土。这里其实intel不是严格的芯片设计厂商,它也是芯片制造厂商。这些厂商受经济影响相对大一点,经济好了他们的销售多一些,经济不好了他们的销售少一些。硬件厂商相对芯片设备制造厂商,利润率更高一些。

在泥土之上的,是水。软件业是水,软件相对硬件厂商,对经济的波动更加敏感。同时,软件厂商比硬件厂商的利润也高,发展空间更大一些。

在说到水的时候,要说一些水生植物。这些植物扎根泥土,从泥土和水里吸收养分。这些就是整机厂商,如康柏,戴尔,惠普,他们把硬件厂商制造的芯片,主板,还有软件厂商生产的软件整合在一起,供用户使用。早几年,芯片厂商对整机厂商的控制权很大,康柏在开始销售使用AMD的CPU的机器不久,就被单纯销售使用Intel CPU计算机的戴尔取代了;现在软件厂商对整机厂商的控制权更大一些。

在水面上飘着的,是泡沫。各种网站,除了有稳定收入来源的,大多数都是泡沫。网站是依赖软件和硬件生存的,所以把网站放在软件和硬件产业上面。网站对经济的波动非常敏感。

随着产业的演进,在这个模型中各层的产业会逐步的下沉,稳定,同时丧失活力,而新的产业,会在这些现存产业之上产生并发展。

2 Comments »

  1. 呵呵,我也是
    吴军的3个系列的文章都很深入浅出,很喜欢

    Comment by 天方 — November 5, 2008 @ 3:53 am

  2. 而张老头的喊声,也让尹旷等人浑身一颤。因为,打破寂静,就意味着刺激到那给脏兮兮的小女孩。刺激到她,也就意味着厄难降临的更早一些——这绝不是值得期待的事情。
    [url=http://www.7xjddz.com]www.7xjddz.com[/url]

    Comment by www.7xjddz.com — July 12, 2014 @ 11:08 pm

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