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July 13, 2010

最近在进行调研,看是否值得回国创业搞软件。做了几个case study,感觉还不错,可是今天看到的新闻,惊醒梦中人。

新浪报道,绿坝北京项目组解散。

报道里面的数字是我最关心的。文章提到,北京项目组得到了2008到2009年共1990万元人民币的经费,团队共有近30人。也就是说,按照1:6.6的美元汇率计算,该项目组一年用掉了300万美元,平均每个员工用了10万美元,和美国的程序员工资持平。

从工资水平上可以看出,绿坝的北京团队,是一支高水平,高素质,能打硬仗的中型软件团队。按照美国的业界标准,30个工程师的团队,可以担负起一个中等规模的网站的日常维护和产品更新任务,并获取数百万的年盈利。

绿坝也是有这个实力来获取盈利的。按照上面的报道,绿坝经过一年多的运营,已经有2000万装鸡用户,而且这个成绩,还是在某些阻力存在的前提下获得的,更加说明了绿坝团队的战斗力。有如此多的装鸡用户,尽管是一款免费软件,单单做一下简单的广告投放,就完全可以支撑起日常的经营开销,并有可观的盈利。何况,绿坝北京,只是绿坝团队的一支力量。在郑州,还有2180万元支撑的另外一支团队在配合作战。

从成本来说,绿坝作为一款完全免费的软件,其维护成本可以分为三块:

  1. 升级开发
  2. 下载支撑
  3. 客户服务
有中国互联网作为分发渠道,以及广大网友做免费客服,第2,3可以说是没有成本的,而第一点我们刚才分析过,是成本的大头。
但是,以绿坝这样有充足资金,强悍开发和成熟产品的团队,在中国的市场环境,也只能维持一年。这个事实不禁让我沉思,是否值得回国去创业呢?

10 Comments »

  1. 怎么感觉通篇有嘲讽意味啊。。。

    Comment by Tao — July 13, 2010 @ 5:25 pm

  2. 绿坝这个项目组,是国内捞钱三部曲的一个典型案例:“立项、分钱、散伙”。 :) 欢迎楼主来天朝打造一支更强悍的无敌捞钱团队。

    Comment by XiaoHui — July 13, 2010 @ 5:30 pm

  3. 太不符合你一贯的风格了
    矫情!!!

    Comment by k — July 13, 2010 @ 7:53 pm

  4. “装鸡用户”, 博主的这个说法笑死我了。

    我个人感觉国内软件还是停留在抄袭国外的基础上。国内自创的软件不够强大。看看国外很多开源的软件,中国人contribute的都不多,就说明一个问题,国内的软件人员自身难保,哪儿还有时间和精力搞啥开源的东东。

    国外这方面比较好,程序员可以有比较大的空间发展。这个估计国内不是一时半会儿可以改变的。

    不过,我觉得如果回国做服务,应该不错。就是不搞啥软件,而是做网上的服务,也就是没有太多的技术优势,而是利用一定的商业优势的那种。

    Comment by Seattle Chinese Info — July 13, 2010 @ 9:03 pm

  5. Sarcasm?
    绿霸的维护不是美国公司做的么;D
    最主要还是不得人心

    Comment by Zhe — July 14, 2010 @ 12:14 am

  6. 哈哈,反讽把。
    绿坝是运气不好,被网民揪出来了,本来闷声发大财就是。

    以楼主的身份,回国上马一个自主知识产权、无敌海归团队的项目。把国家、各个部委、地方政府的钱都拿他一轮。
    回国创业也就算成功了,…,

    Comment by codeone5 — July 14, 2010 @ 3:13 am

  7. 你要是有绿坝这样的后台,也做1年走人,够你用下半辈子,哈哈。感谢party

    Comment by 天朝臣民 — July 15, 2010 @ 10:13 pm

  8. 这1990万的投资里有1000万是给版署,文化部,工信部的回扣,500万是立项人自己的红包,200万是场地器材以及管理的费用,剩下的290万是30个技术人员的薪水,员工因为每年不到10万的薪水而觉得没什么发展散活走人了。天朝的IT,还是要围绕“回扣”与“外包”两个核心的关键词运转的。

    Comment by span — August 9, 2010 @ 12:01 am

  9. Prada handbags to brides to be are very similar to a fragment 9 window screens to men.

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  10. It did everything that I liked about the CandyShell, in that it covered the whole device and provided a nice front lip so when you put the phone on a table screen down, it’s resting on the case rather than the screen. Additionally, the leather made it so it slid in to and out of your pocket that much easier.

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