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August 4, 2010

先说一个小时候的思维试验。当时是看了一个故事,多半是童话,很老套的,说某个人遇到神仙,然后神仙告诉他马上要遇到的事情,后来神仙的预言都实现了。我当时想,那么既然神仙告诉了他要发生的事情,他去避开不就结了?那样预言不就永远不能成真?

说起这个事情,其实是想说,那些关于未来技术发展的预言,多半是人们按照当时的情况进行线性的推理,但是这些推理是众人都认可的,也就是说,大家都会把这些预言和推测当做是必然发生的事情,来进行未来的规划,那么预言对人行为的影响,就会改变社会发展的方向,使得线性推理的前提条件失效。

比如当年PC出来的时候,大家都说,这个东西好,PC会成为热点,于是很多厂商去生产PC硬件,因为PC硬件当时还很少。而苹果则注重于PC的易用性,而不是硬件本身。据说Steve Jobs当年闯进Mac的设计会议,把一本电话本扔在桌子上,让工程师们“设计一台这么大的计算机”。如果这个故事是真的,那么说明Steve Jobs最关心的,是个人计算机怎么才能进入家庭。

微软在这个事情上面走的更远,连硬件都很少涉及,专注于软件,特别是操作系统。因为用户最终接触的,是界面,而不是那些CPU和内存硬盘。虽然当年硬件发展的很快,很多公司在硅谷赚钱,但是微软独自缩在Redmond造办公楼,专注于软件,因为硬件的事情自然有人去操心,大家都知道硬件赚钱,自然有人去造众多的硬件,要操作这些硬件,只能通过微软的界面。而那个天才的对手Steve,正在好莱坞折腾动画片呢。

互联网的故事大家都比较熟悉了,大家当年都说网站赚钱 - 很简单,任何一个网站都能面对全世界的用户,于是大家都去造网站。这个时候瓶颈就不是网站了,是服务:给网站的hosting服务,给用户的服务,等等。于是SUN卖服务器发财了,intel卖PC也赚钱了,amazon靠着给用户的最佳服务也活过来了,google因为信息过载,也过得很好。

现在mobile互联网很热,那么那些炒的很热的概念,也会对我们的推理前提,产生影响。

4 Comments »

  1. 先生高论,一语惊醒梦中人。当前服务的瓶颈之处才是盈利和利润的着力点。这好比是,想发财的人多了,真发财的人不多,倒是那些提供发财致富信息的人真富了起来。

    做网站的多了,好网站却不多,为制作网站服务的提供商却富了起来。

    看来应该往吃紧的地方使劲儿,才是上策。
    吃紧就是要紧。

    Comment by fushanlang — August 25, 2010 @ 11:20 pm

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