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August 6, 2010

Keso写《三言二拍:黑莓劫》,说起那些因为不能访问数据,对黑莓服务进行封杀的国家。我这里不想谈什么善恶,因为善恶取决于立场。

不谈立场,谈技术和商业就比较容易一些。黑莓被封,和google wave被拔插头,都涉及一个软件的所有权的问题。在微软时代,软件是属于用户的,只要付钱,就拥有软件的拷贝,然后所有的逻辑和数据都在用户的计算机上面。当网络出现,软件更多的变为服务,用户使用软件,就要涉及软件开发商,数据提供商,网络服务商这几家。任何一家出了问题,如果没有替代的解决方案,用户之前的投资就要受损失。更麻烦的是,用户多半会把某些数据放在网络上,这些数据属于谁,也是很大的问题。

这个问题单纯从技术上说,是个架构问题:服务放在哪里,数据放在哪里,中间如何协调,交互。从商业上说,这是一个策略问题,对待散户和对待企业用户,根据盈利预期和客户要求,需要不同的策略。再把政治牵扯进来就更好玩了,各个国家的政策都不同,跨国企业在这种事情上面需要投入不少。

而且从以往的经验我们很难得到什么有用的启示。成熟的服务,比如电,水,电话,都没有很多的逻辑,这使得它们都很容易被复制,而复制者除了在市场上作为竞争之外,其实还起到了给用户信心(电信倒了还有联通嘛),从而稳定市场,鼓励推广的作用。但是现有的软件服务,其逻辑是很难被替代的,只有那些相对简单的服务,比如网络存储,以及标准公开稳定的,比如电子邮件和即时通信,可以比较容易的被替代;其他有更加复杂逻辑的服务,都很难被替代,因为逻辑本身,就是软件公司生存的根本。

但是这并不是说,软件业遇到了很大的困难。从另外一个角度说,或许这是一个机会,一个通过用户的选择,来阻挡单个软件企业用接近0的边际成本来占领整个市场,造成垄断的机会。

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